Standard Chartered’s global head of digital asset research Geoff Kendrick now believes his $100,000 year-end Bitcoin forecast may be “too low,” marking a notable shift from the bank that slashed its target by a third just six months ago.
The revision comes as BTC traded at $76,844 on Friday, up 24% over the past week according to CoinGecko data. That single-week gain has erased roughly a month of losses and pushed the largest cryptocurrency back toward levels not seen since May. For a major bank to suggest its own conservative forecast might be too pessimistic, mid-year, with four months of trading still ahead, speaks to how quickly sentiment has shifted.
The February Downgrade and Why It Matters Now
Kendrick’s current optimism needs context. Back on February 12, he issued a report that cut Standard Chartered’s 2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000, a 33% reduction. The same note trimmed the bank’s Ethereum forecast from $7,500 to $4,000.
At the time, Kendrick expected Bitcoin to drop as low as $50,000 and Ether to slide to $1,400 before any meaningful recovery could take hold. The reasoning centered on macro pressures, risk-off positioning across global markets, and what looked like persistent outflows from the spot ETF complex. For an institution that had been among the more bullish voices in traditional finance, the downgrade attracted attention.
That $50,000 floor never materialized in quite the dramatic fashion Kendrick anticipated, though Bitcoin did post back-to-back quarterly losses in the first half of 2026, a rare occurrence that had happened only twice before in its history. H1 closed down 34%, leaving the market bruised but not broken.
Now, with BTC sitting 53% above that feared $50,000 level and 24% higher than just seven days ago, Kendrick is hedging his hedge. “For the first time this year there is now a risk my end year forecast (of USD100k) is too low,” he wrote in a Friday note shared with Cointelegraph.
What’s Driving the Rally: Short Liquidations and Thin Positioning
Kendrick’s note attributed the latest rally largely to short liquidations rather than fresh institutional buying, an important distinction. When prices move against leveraged short positions, those traders are forced to buy back their contracts to cover losses, creating a feedback loop that accelerates price increases.
The derivatives market has been a key driver. Open interest in Bitcoin futures remains relatively low compared to prior rallies, which Kendrick views as bullish. Low open interest means fewer crowded trades, less systemic leverage in the system, and more room for new capital to enter without immediately triggering cascading liquidations.
Put differently: the current rally isn’t running on borrowed fuel. That’s a healthier setup than the leverage-driven spikes of 2021 or late 2024, which often reversed violently once funding rates spiked and overleveraged longs got flushed.
At the same time, spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have started to recover. The ETF complex, which saw brutal outflows earlier this year (BlackRock’s IBIT lost $300 million in a single day back in June as capital rotated into AI-linked equities), is now attracting net positive flows again. Recent daily inflows have run into the hundreds of millions, a pace that, if sustained, would put 2026 back on track for a net-positive year across the ETF complex.
The October 6 Catalyst: What Kendrick Is Watching
Kendrick specifically flagged October 6 as a potential inflection point after which the recovery could accelerate. He didn’t elaborate on the significance of that date in the note, leaving room for speculation.
Several possibilities come to mind. Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter. Since 2013, October through December has delivered positive returns in eight out of twelve years, with average gains of roughly 40%. Seasonality isn’t destiny, but traders who’ve been in crypto long enough have learned to pay attention to it.
There’s also the question of macro liquidity. The Federal Reserve’s September meeting outcome will be known by early October, and rate expectations have shifted meaningfully over the past month. If the Fed signals a more accommodative stance, risk assets across the board could benefit, with Bitcoin historically showing amplified sensitivity to liquidity conditions.
Then there’s the simple math of positioning. If open interest remains low through September and prices continue grinding higher, the traders who were underweight or short into the rally will face mounting pressure to chase. October 6 might simply be Kendrick’s estimate for when that pressure becomes acute.
Broader Analyst Consensus: Are Bears Capitulating?
Kendrick isn’t the only analyst revisiting year-end assumptions. The source material notes that Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten has suggested Bitcoin may bottom in October (though with prices already up 24% in a week, the meaning of “bottom” may need revision). Markus Thielen of 10x Research, meanwhile, said an August close above $63,000 could confirm a bear-market bottom.
Bitcoin is currently trading well above that $63,000 threshold with ten days left in August. If Thielen’s framework holds, the market is already in a new regime.
The Fear & Greed Index has swung from extreme fear territory back toward neutral over the past two weeks, reflecting the shift in sentiment. That index, which aggregates volatility, momentum, social media activity, and other inputs, had spent most of June and July in the 20-35 range. It’s now approaching 50.
What’s notable is how quickly the narrative has shifted. Just two months ago, the dominant story was capital flight: institutions rotating out of crypto ETFs into AI-linked equities, retail engagement hitting multi-year lows, and funding rates on perpetual futures going persistently negative (a sign of bearish positioning).
Now the questions are different. How high can this go? Is $100,000 conservative? Could we retest the all-time high before December?
The Path to $126,000: What Would It Take?
Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,000 was set earlier in 2026, before the first-half drawdown took hold. Reaching it again before year-end would require a 64% rally from current levels.
That’s aggressive, but not without precedent. Bitcoin has delivered 60%+ rallies within a calendar quarter multiple times, most recently in late 2024 and early 2025. The conditions for such a move typically include: strong ETF inflows, favorable macro (declining rates or at least no hawkish surprises), declining exchange balances suggesting coins moving to cold storage rather than being positioned for sale, and rising open interest paired with positive funding rates.
Several of those conditions are present now. ETF inflows are recovering. Exchange balances, according to on-chain analytics, have been declining for months. The one missing piece is sustained positive funding rates, which would indicate leveraged longs returning in size. That hasn’t happened yet, which in Kendrick’s framing is actually bullish (it leaves room for the trade to develop rather than front-running the move).
From a technical perspective, traders will be watching the 200-day moving average. Bitcoin broke above that level for the first time since November just 15 hours ago, per Cointelegraph reporting. Historically, sustained trading above the 200-day MA has been a prerequisite for major rallies. The last time BTC crossed above it and held was in late 2023, which preceded the run to $126,000.
Standard Chartered’s Broader Crypto Thesis
It’s worth remembering that Standard Chartered has been one of the more crypto-forward institutions in traditional banking. Earlier this year, the bank forecast AAVE at $3,500 by 2030, alongside $500,000 Bitcoin and $40,000 Ethereum over the same timeframe. Those are moonshot numbers, even by crypto standards.
Kendrick’s team appears to view digital assets as a permanent allocation class rather than a speculative side bet. That framing explains why they’re willing to revise forecasts mid-year: they’re trading a view on adoption and liquidity flows, not just making a one-time call and hoping it ages well.
The February downgrade, in hindsight, looks like prudent risk management rather than a loss of conviction. Kendrick expected a deeper drawdown, didn’t get it (or at least not to the degree anticipated), and is now adjusting. That’s what institutional research is supposed to do.
Whether $100,000 or $126,000 is the right target, the larger point may be directional: a major bank is signaling that the bear market of early 2026 is likely over, and that the setup for Q4 is constructive.
Questions the Market Will Answer
Several open questions remain. Will ETF inflows sustain at current levels, or was this week’s recovery a short-covering bounce that fades? The difference between a relief rally and a new bull market often comes down to follow-through volume.
How will the macro environment evolve? The Federal Reserve’s September meeting is the obvious near-term catalyst, but geopolitical risks (oil prices, currency volatility, fiscal policy uncertainty) could complicate the picture.
And what about rotation? One of the reasons Bitcoin ETFs bled in June was capital flowing into AI-linked equities. If that trade reverses, where does the money go? Back to crypto? Defensive assets like bonds and gold? The correlation structure between asset classes has been unstable all year.
Kendrick’s note doesn’t answer these questions, but it does suggest he’s more optimistic than he was six months ago. For traders who’ve been waiting for institutional conviction to return, that’s a data point worth noting.
The real test comes over the next six weeks. If Bitcoin can hold above $75,000 into September and ETF inflows remain positive, Kendrick’s hint that $100,000 may be too conservative will start to look prescient. If the rally fades and we’re back to $65,000 by mid-September, the February forecast will look about right after all.
For now, the market is trading like the bears have lost control. Whether that’s a new trend or a squeeze that exhausts itself is the question every trader is trying to answer.
