CryptoQuant’s Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 over the past week, its highest reading since October 2025, as Bitcoin’s 24% rally pushed eight of the index’s 10 underlying indicators into bullish territory.
The move marks a sharp reversal for a market that spent much of 2026 grinding lower. Bitcoin climbed above $80,000 during the rally and was trading around $79,000 at the time of the report, according to CoinGecko data. But the analytics firm stopped short of calling an all-clear: a weekly close above the 365-day moving average, currently sitting around $83,000, is the threshold that would confirm the transition from a strong bounce to a new bull market.
Spot Demand Returns After Nearly a Year
The rally’s foundation looks different from previous dead-cat bounces. CryptoQuant noted that spot and futures demand are growing in tandem for the first time since early October 2025, a pattern that historically precedes sustained uptrends rather than short-squeeze spikes.
Spot demand acceleration is particularly notable given how institutional flows have evolved. Bitcoin ETFs added $338 million in a single day last week, extending a six-day inflow streak that totaled $2.26 billion. That institutional bid has helped absorb selling pressure that might otherwise cap rallies at lower levels.
The demand picture stands in contrast to conditions earlier this year. Through much of the first half of 2026, the Coinbase premium index stayed negative for a record 77 consecutive days, signaling persistent US institutional selling even as retail and overseas buyers accumulated. That metric has since normalized, suggesting the institutional headwind may finally be fading.
Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, pointed to the May 2026 high of $82,820 as the next critical test. “A clear break above that level would reinforce the view that a meaningful cycle low is now in place and shift attention towards the next major move through $100,000 and, ultimately, the 2025 record high,” Kruger told Cointelegraph.
Whales Lock In $1.2 Billion as Rally Overheats
Not everyone is betting on continuation. Short-term holder whales (large wallets that acquired coins relatively recently) realized approximately $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and August 22. The selling peaked on August 20 with a record $614 million in a single day, when Bitcoin traded between $78,000 and $79,000.
Exchange inflows add to the caution. Roughly 53,000 BTC moved onto trading platforms last week, the largest deposit volume since June. Coins sitting on exchanges represent potential sell pressure; holders who want to stay long generally keep assets in cold storage or yield-generating protocols, not on spot order books.
The profit-taking dynamic creates a familiar tension. Bull markets do not move in straight lines, and pullbacks of 15% to 25% are common even during structural uptrends. The question is whether fresh demand can absorb the supply whales are distributing or whether the rally stalls before confirming the $83,000 threshold.
Historical Context: What the 20.5% Unrealized Profit Margin Tells Us
CryptoQuant’s warning about the 20.5% unrealized profit margin deserves closer examination. The firm pointed to early May 2026, when the metric hit 19% with Bitcoin near $82,000, as a cautionary precedent. What followed was a roughly 30% drawdown that pushed BTC toward $58,000 by mid-June.
That earlier selloff coincided with macro stress: the yen crisis drove USD/JPY to 162.50, draining dollar liquidity and forcing cycle-top buyers into capitulation. Current conditions look calmer on the macro front, which may give the rally more room to consolidate rather than collapse.
Still, a 20.5% unrealized margin means the average holder is sitting on meaningful gains. That creates incentive to lock in profits, especially for traders who remember what happened three months ago. The market’s ability to absorb this distribution without a deep correction will be a key test of whether the Bull Score’s 80 reading translates into sustained momentum.
For context, the last time the Bull Score reached these levels in October 2025, Bitcoin went on to rally into late Q4 before topping out. The index is not a timing tool for exact entries and exits, but readings above 70 have historically coincided with favorable risk-reward setups over multi-month horizons.
What Separates a Rally From a New Bull Market
The distinction between a rally and a new bull market matters more than semantics. A rally can retrace entirely; a bull market implies a structural shift in supply and demand that supports higher prices over an extended period.
CryptoQuant’s framework puts the burden of proof on a weekly close above the 365-day moving average. This threshold has served as a regime filter in previous cycles: price trading above the yearly mean tends to beget more buying as trend-followers pile in and underwater sellers move into profit, reducing their urgency to exit.
At current levels, Bitcoin sits roughly 5% below that $83,000 line. A push through that zone would also clear the May 2026 high, giving the market a clean breakout that technical traders could rally behind.
The ETF flows suggest institutions are positioning for exactly that scenario. The $2.26 billion in inflows over six days represents meaningful capital, not noise. If the spot demand CryptoQuant identified continues, the supply from whale profit-taking may prove to be a rotation rather than distribution.
Investors tracking these dynamics can monitor real-time flows on our Bitcoin Treasury dashboard, which tracks public company and ETF holdings, and the derivatives page for funding rates and open interest shifts that often precede spot moves.
Looking Ahead: The $83K Test
The next seven days will be pivotal. Bitcoin needs to hold current levels and push through $83,000 on a weekly closing basis to trigger the confirmation CryptoQuant outlined. Failure to do so would not necessarily negate the rally, but it would leave the market in a gray zone where bullish onchain signals coexist with technical resistance.
Kruger’s framework points beyond $83,000 to the psychological $100,000 level and eventually the 2025 record high as subsequent targets. Getting there requires absorbing the $1.2 billion in whale profit-taking, normalizing exchange inflows, and maintaining the spot-futures demand alignment that distinguishes this rally from earlier bounces.
The Bull Score’s jump from 30 to 80 in a single week is the most aggressive shift in the index since October 2025. Whether it marks the start of something bigger depends on what happens when price meets the 365-day moving average. Sunday’s weekly close will offer the first real answer.
