Circle went public. Bullish went public. BitGo went public. And then the pipeline froze.
The crypto IPO market that looked ready to boom in early 2026 has stalled, with Kraken parent Payward, Consensys, Ledger, and Grayscale all delaying their public listing plans as investor appetite for digital asset equities evaporates. Christian Lopez, head of blockchain and digital assets at investment bank Cohen & Company Capital Markets, told CoinDesk that the slowdown stems from capital rotation and macro headwinds rather than the regulatory uncertainty that dominated previous cycles.
“The IPO market is a bit slower in the crypto space for obvious reasons,” Lopez said, pointing to last October’s liquidity event as a turning point that drained capital from the ecosystem. Retail investors who once powered crypto rallies have shifted their attention to artificial intelligence stocks, then expanded into the broader technology sector, including the so-called Mag 7 names. The rotation left crypto firms competing for a shrinking pool of risk capital at exactly the moment they hoped to tap public markets.
The October Thesis and What Comes After
Lopez’s most specific prediction centers on timing: he expects Bitcoin could bottom around October 2026, and the broader crypto market tends to follow. That assessment implies the IPO window may not meaningfully reopen until 2027, a full year later than many firms anticipated when they began preparing S-1 filings.
The October call aligns with Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle patterns, though the actual catalyst for any bottom would likely involve macro conditions rather than on-chain mechanics alone. Previous cycle lows in late 2018 and late 2022 both coincided with broader risk-off periods in equities. If October 2026 follows that template, crypto firms filing now would be trying to price offerings into a declining market, a recipe for the weak aftermarket performance Lopez says investors are already worried about.
“Investors are hesitant to back a stock in an IPO because they’re worried about whether there will be support in the aftermarket,” he said.
BitGo’s post-listing performance has become a cautionary reference point. The company’s BTGO shares have struggled since its debut, contributing to a broader chill on new offerings. When early movers in a sector disappoint, later filers often delay rather than risk a similar reception. Our prior coverage on SpaceX’s planned $75 billion IPO noted how that record-setting offering could siphon risk capital from crypto listings, and the dynamic Lopez describes suggests that siphoning is already underway, just flowing toward AI rather than aerospace.
Macro Pressure From Tokyo to Washington
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate path remains uncertain, and that uncertainty has made investors particularly cautious toward high-beta assets. While signals from the Fed and the Trump administration point toward a more deflationary environment that could eventually support rate cuts, global markets face pressure from central bank actions elsewhere. Lopez specifically cited the Bank of Japan’s recent moves to defend the yen as a source of global deleveraging that ripples into crypto risk appetite.
The BoJ connection matters because Japan’s ultra-low rates have funded carry trades across global risk assets for years. When Japan tightens or defends its currency, that funding dries up and forces deleveraging in assets far removed from the yen. Crypto, as one of the highest-beta asset classes available, tends to feel the effects early. Our earlier coverage of Bitcoin stalling near $77,800 as Japanese inflation data hit highlighted the same transmission mechanism.
This creates a frustrating paradox for crypto firms. Domestic regulatory clarity has improved substantially. The SEC’s recent proposal to let firms sell shares immediately after an IPO rather than waiting through a lockout period could actually help crypto issuers raise capital more flexibly. But improved US regulatory conditions don’t help much when global macro forces are pulling capital out of risk assets altogether.
Lopez’s framing represents a notable shift from the narrative that dominated crypto markets through 2023 and 2024, when SEC enforcement actions and the lack of clear rules were blamed for keeping firms from going public. Circle filed for an IPO in 2021, withdrew it, refiled in 2024, and finally completed its listing this year. The multi-year saga was widely attributed to regulatory uncertainty, but Lopez argues the current delays have different roots.
“That’s less relevant than before. Companies went public before there was regulatory clarity,” he said.
Who’s Still Moving Forward
Not every firm has frozen its plans. Blockchain.com said in May it confidentially filed for a US IPO with the Securities and Exchange Commission. CoinDesk reported the same month that crypto trading platform FalconX had also filed a draft S-1 registration, the initial step toward a potential public listing.
These filings keep optionality alive without committing to a specific listing date. A confidential S-1 can sit with the SEC for months while a company waits for market conditions to improve. The strategy lets firms complete the regulatory review process so they’re ready to price quickly if a window opens, rather than starting from scratch.
Kraken’s reported plans illustrate how crypto firms are adapting their strategies for public markets. The exchange has sought to diversify beyond pure crypto trading, a move Lopez believes better positions companies for investor interest.
“The right thing to do is become more diversified rather than being just a crypto trading business,” he said.
The diversification thesis makes sense when you look at what’s happened to pure-play crypto equities. Trading volumes have softened from their peaks, and businesses built entirely around crypto transaction fees have seen revenues compress. A company that can point to staking infrastructure, custody services, and eventually tokenization revenue has a more compelling story than one relying solely on trading commissions.
Circle’s public listing offers a template. The USDC issuer generates revenue from the interest earned on reserves backing its stablecoin, a model that benefits from higher rates rather than suffering from them. That rate sensitivity actually works in Circle’s favor during the current environment, differentiating it from exchanges whose fortunes rise and fall with trading activity.
The Institutional Adoption Paradox
Perhaps the strangest aspect of the current moment is that blockchain infrastructure adoption continues accelerating at major financial institutions even as crypto funding markets struggle. Lopez pointed to Morgan Stanley, Nasdaq, and the New York Stock Exchange all building blockchain-based infrastructure and preparing for tokenized settlement.
The industry is moving toward near-instant settlement, shifting from T+1 to T+0. The OpenUSD network has brought together more than 140 financial institutions and payments companies around stablecoin infrastructure. These aren’t experimental pilot programs tucked away in innovation labs. They’re core infrastructure investments by some of the largest names in traditional finance.
You can track public companies holding Bitcoin through our Bitcoin treasury tracker, and the corporate adoption story remains intact despite the IPO slowdown. The disconnect is between blockchain technology adoption, which continues, and blockchain company valuations, which have compressed alongside the broader crypto market.
Lopez expects the long-term trend to favor consolidation and maturation. He anticipates many smaller crypto tokens and single-purpose businesses will disappear over the next several years, while infrastructure that traditional finance actually uses will expand. That’s a more selective view than the “rising tide lifts all boats” narrative that dominated the 2021 bull market.
For investors tracking sentiment, our Fear & Greed Index currently reflects the cautious positioning Lopez describes. The macro uncertainty he outlines, stretching from Fed policy to Bank of Japan interventions, shows up in compressed volatility and hesitant capital deployment across crypto assets.
What Has to Change
The path back to an active crypto IPO market runs through several gates. First, Bitcoin needs to find a cycle bottom, which Lopez targets around October. Second, global central bank policy needs to stabilize enough for risk appetite to return. Third, the AI trade needs to cool enough that some of that capital begins rotating back.
The third condition may be showing early signs. Lopez noted that even AI-related equities have experienced sharp pullbacks recently, suggesting capital is rotating once again. If the AI boom has peaked, some of the investors who abandoned crypto for generative AI stocks may start looking for the next opportunity. Crypto’s correlation with tech equities means it often benefits from sector rotation once a prior theme exhausts itself.
But that rotation won’t happen on its own timeline. The Fed’s path, China’s economic trajectory, and geopolitical developments from trade policy to energy markets all feed into the global risk appetite that ultimately determines whether investors will support new crypto listings.
One structural factor working in crypto firms’ favor: the SEC’s proposed rule change to end IPO lockouts would let newly public companies raise additional capital immediately after listing. For crypto firms worried about aftermarket support, the ability to do follow-on offerings quickly could provide a safety valve. If a company’s stock drops after listing, it could raise capital from long-term holders rather than watching short sellers dominate the price action.
The current environment has clarified which crypto businesses have staying power and which were entirely dependent on bull market conditions. Firms that waited years for regulatory clarity only to find capital markets closed when clarity arrived are now forced to demonstrate they can survive without public market funding. Those that can will be better positioned when the window eventually reopens.
A Different Kind of Wait
The crypto industry spent years blaming Washington for keeping it out of public markets. Now that regulatory clarity has improved, a different set of obstacles has emerged. Global macro conditions, central bank policy divergence, and competition for capital from AI have combined to keep crypto IPOs on hold despite the green light from US regulators.
Lopez’s expectation that the market may not meaningfully reopen until 2027 suggests a longer wait than many firms anticipated. Companies with strong balance sheets and diversified revenue streams will use this time to build. Those without may not make it to the other side.
The irony is that traditional finance continues adopting blockchain technology even as blockchain companies struggle to go public. The infrastructure is gaining institutional acceptance. The businesses built on that infrastructure are being asked to prove they can survive a down cycle before public investors will back them.
For firms in the pipeline, the message from capital markets is clear: you’ve done the regulatory work, now show us you can wait.
