“The net percentage of supply in profit relative to the total supply has turned negative, which historically has marked cycle bottoms with extreme precision.”
That observation from CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im captures the mood among Bitcoin traders on Thursday after June’s dismal US jobs report sent the cryptocurrency surging off Wednesday’s $57,750 low to reclaim $61,000. The move came as chipmaker stocks cratered, gold caught a bid, and rate-hike odds collapsed. Whether this is the start of a sustained recovery or another false dawn depends on how macro capital flows respond to a labor market that suddenly looks much weaker than Wall Street assumed.
June Payrolls Came In at Less Than Half of Expectations
US nonfarm payrolls increased by only 57,000 in June, badly missing the 113,000 consensus estimate compiled by Yahoo Finance. That shortfall alone would have rattled equity bulls, but the Labor Department piled on by revising April and May figures downward by a combined 74,000 jobs. The three-month average now sits well below the pace needed to keep unemployment stable, let alone signal an economy that requires further tightening.
For context, we flagged the risk back in May when we covered April’s jobs report and the potential for wage data to swing Bitcoin. That print came in light too, at 62,000. Two consecutive misses of this magnitude start to look like a trend rather than statistical noise.
The CME FedWatch Tool registered the shift immediately. Odds of a Fed rate hike by September dropped to 54% from 64% the prior day. That 10-percentage-point swing matters because it reprices the entire front end of the yield curve, pulling down Treasury yields and lifting assets that compete with cash. Gold and Bitcoin both fit that description.
AI Stocks Took a Beating While Bitcoin Diverged
Nasdaq 100 futures erased three days of gains in a single session. Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials each fell 9% or more intraday. The semiconductor and storage names that powered the AI rally have become crowded trades, and crowded trades unwind fast when macro data disappoints.
Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction. From Wednesday’s low of $57,750, the price climbed above $61,000 by Thursday afternoon, a recovery of roughly 5.6% in less than 24 hours. The divergence is notable because BTC and tech have often traded in lockstep over the past two years. When Nasdaq 100 futures (blue line on TradingView) dropped, Bitcoin (orange line) separated upward. That kind of decoupling usually requires either a change in correlation regime or a specific catalyst for crypto, and in this case, it appears to be both.
The catalyst is capital looking for somewhere to hide. If AI stocks are overheated and bonds are repricing, investors have limited options. Gold rallied on Thursday, recovering some of the 8% it had lost over the prior two weeks. Bitcoin, often described as “digital gold,” attracted similar flows. Scarce assets tend to outperform when monetary policy expectations loosen, and that dynamic is playing out in real time.
Gold and Oil Tell the Same Story
Gold’s bounce wasn’t just a one-day spike. The metal had been under pressure since mid-June as traders priced in a hawkish Fed. We covered that dynamic when Bitcoin slid to $58K alongside gold and silver, noting how rate-hike expectations were crushing the hard-money narrative. Thursday’s reversal suggests that narrative is coming back.
Crude WTI oil added another supportive signal. Prices stabilized below $70 per barrel after the Qatar Foreign Ministry cited “positive progress” in US-Iran discussions. Lower oil prices reduce inflationary pressure, which gives the Fed more room to pause or even ease. The St. Louis Fed’s data shows the central bank’s balance sheet has stagnated at $6.73 trillion, but its mandate allows for $40 billion in monthly purchases of short-term Treasuries and bonds. Weak job numbers and tame oil could be the combination that unlocks that liquidity.
Calculating the implied shift in expectations: if the Fed were to begin $40 billion in monthly purchases by October, that would inject $160 billion into the system by year-end. That’s not quantitative easing at 2020 levels, but it’s directionally bullish for assets that benefit from balance-sheet expansion. Bitcoin’s fixed supply of 21 million coins makes it a natural candidate for that rotation.
Onchain Data Hints at Seller Exhaustion
Gaah_im’s analysis deserves a closer look because it frames the price action within a longer cycle. The realized profit-to-loss ratio, a metric that tracks whether coins moving onchain are being sold at a profit or loss, has hit its lowest level since 2022. When this ratio bottoms out, it typically means weak hands have already capitulated and the remaining holders are less likely to sell.
The net percentage of supply in profit relative to total supply has also turned negative. In plain terms, more Bitcoin holders are sitting on losses than gains at current prices. That sounds grim, but it’s historically been a contrarian signal. The same configuration appeared near the lows in late 2022 before Bitcoin rallied from $16,000 to $82,500 over the following 18 months.
Does that guarantee a repeat? No. Onchain metrics are descriptive, not predictive, and macro conditions can override internal market structure. But the data at least suggests that the sell pressure from forced liquidations and capitulating retail is waning. Whatever selling happens from here likely comes from deliberate positioning rather than panic.
You can track broader market sentiment shifts on our Fear & Greed Index, which combines price momentum, volatility, and social signals into a single reading. As of Thursday evening, the index had climbed back toward neutral after spending most of June in fear territory.
Strategy’s Dilution Overhang Remains a Headwind
Not everything is bullish. Part of Bitcoin’s recent weakness stems from disappointment with Strategy, the rebranded company formerly known as MicroStrategy. Despite holding a healthy 8% net leverage ratio and commanding a $56.8 billion enterprise value, Strategy has accelerated MSTR share issuance to buy back some debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks. That dilution weighs on the stock price and, by extension, on sentiment around corporate Bitcoin treasuries.
The math is straightforward. If Strategy issues shares to service debt rather than to buy more Bitcoin, each share represents a smaller claim on the underlying BTC holdings. Investors who bought MSTR as a leveraged Bitcoin proxy don’t love that dynamic. You can see how Strategy’s holdings compare to other corporate treasuries on our Bitcoin Treasury tracker, which monitors public-company BTC positions in real time.
Whether the dilution matters for Bitcoin itself is debatable. Strategy hasn’t been a marginal buyer recently, so the absence of fresh demand from Saylor’s firm is already priced in. The question is whether other institutional buyers, particularly spot ETF issuers, step in to fill the gap. Recent ETF flow data has been mixed, with outflows dominating for much of late June before a modest uptick this week.
The Path to $70K Depends on Follow-Through
Traders are now eyeing $70,000 as the next major level. Bitcoin hasn’t traded there since early June, when it briefly touched $65,881 after Trump announced the end of the Iran blockade. That rally faded as hawkish Fed rhetoric returned, and the subsequent drop to $57,750 tested buyer resolve.
What’s different now? Three things stand out. First, the labor market data genuinely surprised to the downside, which changes the Fed’s calculus. Second, AI stocks are cracking, creating a need for reallocation. Third, onchain metrics suggest the selling pressure has largely exhausted itself.
That’s a solid setup, but it’s not a guarantee. The Fed could turn hawkish again if inflation data surprises higher. Strategy could accelerate dilution. Geopolitical risk could resurface. And the simple reality is that Bitcoin has rallied to $60K-plus multiple times in 2026 only to fail at higher resistance. The derivatives market shows funding rates still slightly positive, meaning longs are paying shorts, which indicates speculative positioning hasn’t fully reset.
If weakness in the AI sector accelerates, some of that capital will likely rotate into gold and Bitcoin, making a near-term recovery to $70,000 possible. The jobs report provided the spark. Whether it becomes a sustained flame depends on follow-through from both macro and crypto-specific flows.
